Geo-visualizing the hotspots of smog-induced health effects in district Gujranwala, Pakistan: a community perspective.

This study aims to examine the health effects of smog on different age groups in Gujranwala and its associated health effects. To achieve this, primary data was gathered through a questionnaire survey focused on health issues faced by elderly individuals during the smog season. The results of the survey revealed that older adults in Gujranwala are particularly vulnerable to a range of health problems during this period, including coughing, throat infections, irritated eyes, runny noses, shortness of breath, chest pain while breathing, wheezing, asthma, heart problems, and respiratory issues. In order to analyze the spatial distribution of these health concerns, spatial and geo-statistical methods were employed utilizing ArcGIS 10.5. By integrating field data and secondary sources, hotspot and cold spot zones were identified. Employing the statistical model within ArcMap 10.5, hotspot analysis was performed to determine areas with elevated air quality index (AQI) values and associated health problems. The application of the inverse distance weighted approach, incorporating the Z value, facilitated a visual representation of areas with heightened and reduced AQI and health-related issues. The study's outcomes underscore the prevalence of health challenges among older adults during the winter months in Gujranwala, particularly linked to smog-induced throat infections, irritated eyes, and runny noses. The research identified zones with escalated AQI values, encompassing regions such as Gujranwala, Chandaqella, Alam Chowk, Khali Shahpur, Sialkot Bypass, and Pindi Bypass. It was established that industrial pollutants and vehicular emissions are the primary contributors to smog in the area. Given the detrimental consequences of pollution on individuals of all age groups, it is imperative to take action to mitigate its impact. This can be achieved through addressing pollution sources, implementing effective emission control measures, and fostering public awareness. By adopting proactive measures, the adverse health effects of pollution can be minimized, thereby fostering a healthier and safer environment for the entire population. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers and environmentalists to implement targeted interventions and improve air quality, ultimately safeguarding the health of local populations.

Tuberculosis prevalence and demographic characteristics of population in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (Pakistan): A retrospective study.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious problem for public health and a leading cause of death after COVID-19 and superior to even HIV/AIDS. It is a social health issue and can cause stigma and economic loss as the person cannot perform professionally due to lethargy caused by disease. It is a retrospective study done on data from National TB program Muzaffarabad chapter. The details were noted on SPSS and analysis was done to find important demographic characteristics. The total number of patients was 3441; among which 48.76% were males. Most of them (81.11%) belonged to the Muzaffarabad division of Azad Jammu and Kahmir (AJK). The microbiologically or culture positive cases were 440. Rifampicin resistance was present in 147 cases, further categorized as high (n = 143), very high (n = 3), or true positive (n = 1) resistance. Muti drug resistance was found in 19 cases. The microscopy culture is more sensitive (AUC = 0.511) than MTB/RIF or serology (AUC = 0.502) according to ROC. The rate of positive smear results is not very satisfactory in the present study as it cannot detect dormant or latent cases. There is a need to establish more sensitive tests for detection of cases and more research to combat the disease.

Relation of poverty with treatment-seeking behavior and antibiotic misuse among UTI patients in Pakistan.

Objective: The current study aimed to assess the relation between multi-dimension poverty, treatment-seeking behavior, and antibiotic misuse among urinary tract infection (UTI) patients. Method: A cross-sectional approach was utilized to recruit patients who had a history of UTI in the previous month from two provinces of Pakistan. The treatment-seeking behavior and antibiotic misuse data were collected on a self-developed questionnaire, whereas the poverty data were collected on a modified multi-dimension poverty index (MPI). Descriptive statistics were applied to summarize the data. The logistic regression analysis was carried out to assess the association of multi-dimension poverty with patient treatment-seeking behavior and antibiotic misuse. Results: A total of 461 participants who had UTI symptoms in the previous month were recruited. Most of the participants in the severely deprived stage treated the UTI (p < 0.001); however, there was a high proportion of the participants who consulted with friends and family for UTI treatment (p < 0.001). The patients with deprivation status (deprived and severely deprived) were less associated with formal consultation. The poorer subgroups were less likely to practice antibiotic course completion. Conclusion: The current study highlighted that poverty plays an important role in antibiotic misuse. Poorer subgroups were associated with informal consultations and the incompletion of the antibiotic course. Further studies are needed to explore the potential role of poverty in treatment-seeking behavior and antibiotic misuse.

Breaking the Chain: Strategies to Stem Adenovirus Spread in Pakistan.

Adenovirus, a common respiratory pathogen, has witnessed a notable rise in incidence rates across various regions in Pakistan. Utilizing epidemiological data and climate records, this research discerns a potential linkage between the burgeoning adenovirus cases and alterations in regional climate patterns. Through statistical analysis and modeling techniques, the study aims to elucidate the relationship between climatic variables, such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation, and the prevalence of adenovirus infections. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective public health interventions and preparedness strategies to mitigate the impact of adenovirus outbreaks in Pakistan. Furthermore, this research contributes to the broader discourse on the intersection of infectious diseases and climate change, highlighting the need for comprehensive adaptive measures to address emerging health challenges in a changing environment.

Risk perception about communicable and vector borne diseases among international travellers to Pakistan: A cross sectional study.

With the rise in air travel, the risk of diseases travelling from one geographical area to another has also increased. Relatively little is known about how travellers know and perceive the health risks associated with travel and how they adopt preventive measures before and while travelling abroad. The objective of this study is to determine the risk perception about communicable and vector-borne diseases among international travellers arriving from different countries and to find any association between the level of risk perception and independent variables. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 426 participants enrolled through convenient sampling technique. An already validated questionnaire was used to collect information. Chi square test was applied to ascertain any significant association between dependent and independent variables. Out of 426 respondents, only 226 (53%) had a high risk perception, whereas 220 (47%) had a low risk perception. A significant association was noted between the level of risk perception and gender (x2=20.9, p=0.000), level of education (x2=42.9, p=0.000), nationality (x2=7.5, p= 0.006) and region of arrival of the passengers (x2=26.2, p= 0.000). The results of the study revealed that 220 (47%) of the travellers had a low risk perception that may lead to an increase in the burden on healthcare system in Pakistan as well as exporting any new disease from Pakistan to other parts of the world where it does not already exist.

Cytogenetic abnormalities associated with reproductive failure in Pakistani population: Experience of a tertiary care hospital.

Constitutional chromosomal abnormalities play a significant role in causing reproductive anomalies in individuals of reproductive age. With the rapid advancement of genome engineering techniques, it has now become possible to cure different genetic disorders. However, very limited data is available regarding the prevalence of such aberrations in the Pakistani population. Considering this factor, this retrospective analysis was undertaken to elucidate the type and prevalence rate of such abnormalities in our population. A total of 241 individuals, who were referred to the Liaquat National Hospital, from January 2017 to December 2021, with a history of infertility or miscarriages, were evaluated using the standard GTG banding technique. The results revealed a notably high percentage 44(18.2%) of chromosomal abnormalities in our population. Surprisingly, the frequency of these anomalies was observed to be higher in males than in females. However, further research is needed using a larger sample size to confirm the findings of this investigation.

Pathways to prevention: insights on stemming HIV outbreaks in Larkana, Pakistan.

In the past two decades, Pakistan has faced multiple human immunodeficiency virus outbreaks, with Larkana appearing to be the hub of such outbreaks. While the previous Larkana outbreaks happened in high-risk populations, the alarming outbreak in 2019 occurred in a low-risk paediatric population, raising several concerning questions. Human immunodeficiency virus infections spilling into the general population is indicative of a steady increase in the number of cases, and the failure of control strategies to stem the concentrated epidemic from evolving. Although several causative factors have been identified from previous outbreaks, the one that occurred in 2019 may have been influenced by an additional, hitherto unexplored factor; child sexual abuse. The current narrative review was planned to summarise human immunodeficiency virus risk factors and causes identified in previous Larkana epidemics, to explore potential reasons for the outbreaks in children, and to discuss possible steps needed for stemming human immunodeficiency virus outbreaks in Pakistan.

Predictors of clinical outcomes in patients with sepsis: A retrospective study from a tertiary care hospital in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations between various clinic-demographic factors and clinical outcomes among patients treated for sepsis. METHODS: The retrospective study was conducted at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, and comprised data of all patients aged >18 years diagnosed with sepsis from January to December 2019. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate independent associations between predictors and outcomes. Data was analysed using R packages. RESULTS: Of the 1,136 patients, 621(54.6%) were male and 515(45.3%) were female. The overall mean age was 59.05±16.91 years. Female gender (odds ratio: 1.029; 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.64) was found to be an independent predictor of septic shock, while hypertension (odds ratio0.75; 95% confidence interval: 0.59-0.95) emerged as a protective factor. Chronic kidney disease (odds ratio: 1.539; 95% confidence interval: 1.14-2.07) was an independent predictor of prolonged length of stay, while older age appeared to be protective (odds ratio: 0.98; 95% confidence interval: 0.98-0.99). Mortality was associated with a significantly lower odds of Escherichia coli on culture (odds ratio: 0.26; 95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.54). CONCLUSIONS: Independent associations were found between specific patient characteristics and adverse clinical outcomes.

Secondary attack rates and determinants of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) household transmission in Pakistan: A case-ascertained prospective, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Households are considered ideal settings for studying the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease. METHODS: A prospective study was conducted, based on the World Health Organization FFX protocol from October 2020 to January,2021. Household contacts of laboratory-confirmed index cases were followed up for their symptomatic history, nasal swabs for RT-PCR,and blood samples for anti-SARS CoV-2 antibodies were collected at enrollment and days 7, 14 and 28. We estimated secondary attack rate (SAR), effective household case cluster size and determinants of secondary infection among susceptible household contacts using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: We enrolled 77 index cases and their 543 contacts. Out of these, 252 contacts were susceptible at the time of enrollment. There were 77 household clusters, out of which, transmission took place in 20 (25.9%) giving rise to 34 cases. The acquired secondary attack rate (SAR) was 14.0% (95% CI 9.0-18.0). The effective household case cluster size was 0.46 (95%CI 0.33,0.56). Reported symptoms of nausea and vomiting (aOR, 7.9; 95% CI, 1.4-45.5) and fatigue (aOR, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.8-22.7) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a low SARS-CoV-2 secondary attack rate in the backdrop of high seroprevalence and asymptomatic transmission among households in Karachi, Pakistan.

Building confidence in the COVID-19 vaccine in a polio-endemic country: strategic communication lessons from Pakistan.

In a health emergency, governments rely on public trust in their policy, and anticipate its compliance to protect health and save lives. Vaccine hesitancy compromises this process when an emergency involves infections. The prevailing discourse on vaccine hesitancy often describes it as a static phenomenon, ignoring its expanse and complexity, and neglecting the exploration of tools to address it. This article diverges from the conventional perspective by explaining the case of Pakistan and its communication strategy for the COVID-19 vaccine. Decades of polio vaccine hesitancy, rooted in the country's fight against terrorism, constitute its history. On the other hand, the first-ever launch of typhoid conjugate vaccine involving 35 million kids during 2019-2021 was a success. Against this backdrop, the country considered vaccine hesitancy as a dynamic phenomenon, interwoven with the social ecology and the responsiveness of the healthcare system. Its communication strategy facilitated those willing to receive the vaccine, while being responsive to the information needs of those still in the decision-making process. In the face of both hesitancy and a scarcity of vaccine doses, the country successfully inoculated nearly 70% (160 million) of its population in just over 1 year. People's perceptions about the COVID-19 vaccine also improved over time. This achievement offers valuable insights and tools for policymakers and strategists focused on the demand side of vaccine programmes. The lessons can significantly contribute to the global discourse on improving vaccine confidence and bolstering global health security.

Exploring relationship of poor sleeping habits with prenatal stress among pregnant women in Pakistan: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Pregnancy is a complex phenomenon accompanied by biological, physiological and psychosocial changes for a mother. It is also regarded as a stressful life event where a woman's role, identity and interpersonal relationships are restructured. The present study from Pakistan explores the association of sleep quality and poor sleeping habits with prenatal stress using Pittsburgh Sleep quality Index. RESULTS: There were a total of 516 women (mean age = 29.82 years), with more than half reporting poor sleep quality. Ethnically, a majority (395, 76.6%) were natives of the Punjab province while rest were non-natives. A high percentage of respondents reported poor subjective sleep quality (22.1%), sleep latency (44.1%), habitual sleep efficiency (27.5%), sleep disturbance (30.1%), use of medications (7.1%) and daytime dysfunction (29.5%). According to logistic regression analysis, respondents with poor sleep quality were 2.24 (95% CI = 1.55-3.22, P < 0.001) times more likely to have high stress levels (P < 0.001).

Predictors of Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Influenza Virus, and Human Metapneumovirus Carriage in Children Under 5 Years With WHO-Defined Fast-Breathing Pneumonia in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children < 5 years. We describe nasopharyngeal carriage of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV), and influenza virus among children with fast-breathing pneumonia in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of nasopharyngeal swabs from children aged 2-59 months with fast-breathing pneumonia, enrolled in the randomized trial of amoxicillin versus placebo for fast-breathing pneumonia (RETAPP) (NCT02372461) from 2014 to 2016. Swabs were collected using WHO standardized methods, processed at the Aga Khan University, Pakistan. Viral detection was performed using LUMINEX xTAG respiratory viral panel assay and logistic regression identified clinical and sociodemographic predictors. FINDINGS: Of the 1000 children tested, 92.2% (n = 922) were positive for viral carriage. RSV, hMPV, and influenza virus were detected in 59 (6.4%), 56 (6.1%), and 58 (6.3%) children and co-infections in three samples (two RSV-hMPV and one influenza-hMPV). RSV carriage was common in infants (56%), we observed a higher occurrence of fever in children with hMPV and influenza virus (80% and 88%, respectively) and fast breathing in RSV (80%) carriage. RSV carriage was positively associated with a history of fast/difficulty breathing (aOR: 1.96, 95% CI 1.02-3.76) and low oxygen saturation (aOR: 2.52, 95% CI 1.32-4.82), hMPV carriage was positively associated with a complete vaccination status (aOR: 2.22, 95% CI 1.23-4.00) and body temperature ≥ 37.5°C (aOR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.35-4.04) whereas influenza viral carriage was associated with body temperature ≥ 37.5°C (aOR: 4.48, 95% CI 2.53-7.93). CONCLUSION: We observed a high nasopharyngeal viral carriage among children with WHO-defined fast-breathing pneumonia in Pakistan. Fever, difficulty in breathing, hypoxia and vaccination status are important clinical predictors for viral nonsevere community-acquired pneumonia.

Exploring the path to polio eradication: insights from consecutive seroprevalence surveys among Pakistani children.

Introduction: After trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) cessation, Pakistan has maintained immunity to type 2 poliovirus by administering inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization, alongside monovalent OPV type 2 (mOPV2) and IPV in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). This study assesses the change in poliovirus type 2 immunity after tOPV withdrawal and due to SIAs with mOPV2 and IPV among children aged 6-11 months. Methods: Three cross-sectional sequential serological surveys were conducted in 12 polio high-risk areas of Pakistan. 25 clusters from each geographical stratum were selected utilizing probability proportional to size. Results: Seroprevalence of type 2 poliovirus was 49%, with significant variation observed among surveyed areas; <30% in Pishin, >80% in Killa Abdullah, Mardan & Swabi, and Rawalpindi. SIAs with IPV improved immunity from 38 to 57% in Karachi and 60 to 88% in Khyber. SIAs with IPV following mOPV2 improved immunity from 62 to 65% in Killa Abdullah, and combined mOPV2 and IPV SIAs in Pishin improved immunity from 28 to 89%. Results also reflected that immunity rates for serotypes 1 and 3 were consistently above 90% during all three phases and across all geographical areas. Conclusion: The study findings highlight the importance of implementing effective vaccination strategies to prevent the re-emergence of poliovirus. Moreover, the results provide crucial information for policymakers working toward achieving global polio eradication.

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic period on stock market return and volatility. Evidence from the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a significant event of the current century, introducing substantial transformations in economic and social activities worldwide. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between daily COVID-19 cases and Pakistan stock market (PSX) return volatility. To assess the relationship between daily COVID-19 cases and the PSX return volatility, we collected secondary data from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the PSX website, specifically focusing on the PSX 100 index, spanning from March 15, 2020, to March 31, 2021. We used the GARCH family models for measuring the volatility and the COVID-19 impact on the stock market performance. Our E-GARCH findings show that there is long-term persistence in the return volatility of the stock market of Pakistan in the period of the COVID-19 timeline because ARCH alpha (ω1) and GARCH beta (ω2) are significant. Moreover, is asymmetrical effect is found in the stock market of Pakistan during the COVID-19 period due to Gamma (ѱ) being significant for PSX. Our DCC-GARCH results show that the COVID-19 active cases have a long-term spillover impact on the Pakistan stock market. Therefore, the need of strong planning and alternative platform should be needed in the distress period to promote the stock market and investor should advised to make diversified international portfolio by investing in high and low volatility stock market to save their income. This study advocated the implications for investors to invest in low volatility stock especially during the period of pandemics to protect their return on investment. Moreover, policy makers and the regulators can make effective policies to maintain financial stability during pandemics that is very important for the country's economic development.

Oral mucositis & oral health related quality of life in women undergoing chemotherapy for breast cancer in Karachi, Pakistan: A multicenter hospital based cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Oral mucositis is an inflammatory condition of oral cavity which is a common and serious side effect of cancer treatment. Severe oral mucositis compromises basic functions like eating and swallowing causing malnutrition also affecting overall patient's oral health related quality of life. The aim of the study was to find the frequency of oral mucositis in patients with breast cancer during their chemotherapy, the factors associated with oral mucositis & the overall patient's oral health related quality of life. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted and a total of 160 women diagnosed with breast cancer, receiving chemotherapy and who had undergone at least one cycle of chemotherapy were recruited from two hospital settings. In-person interviews were done, patients were asked questions about their sociodemographic history, personal habits, oral history and oral findings, breast cancer stage, chemotherapy history and Oral Health Related Quality of Life. Their oral examination was done at the end of the interview to assess presence or absence of oral mucositis, using World Health Organization oral mucositis tool. Oral Health Related Quality of Life was assessed using Oral Health Impact Profile-14 questionnaire. RESULTS: Our results showed that out of 160 patients 88 (55%) of the breast cancer cases developed oral mucositis during chemotherapy. The mean Oral Health Impact Profile -14 scores in patients with oral mucositis was high 18.36±0.96 showing poor Oral Health Related Quality of Life. Occasional frequency of brushing was significantly associated with oral mucositis (Prevalence ratio:2.26, 95%_CI 1.06-4.84) compared to those patients who brushed once and twice daily. Low level of education showed negative association with oral mucositis (Prevalence ratio:0.52, 95%_CI 0.31-0.88). CONCLUSION: Our study showed significant positive association of occasional brushing with OM and protective association of low level of education with the development of OM. Emphasis should be given to oral hygiene instructions and dental education to cancer patients in oncology clinics with the prescription of mouth washes, gels and toothpaste to patients to decrease OM during chemotherapy.

Validation of a Predictive Model of Vaginal Birth after Caesarean Section in Pakistani Women.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency of successful trials of vaginal birth after Caesarean section (VBAC) using the Flamm and Geiger model. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. Place and Duration of the Study: Obstetrics and Gynaecology Unit II of Dr. Ruth K.M. Pfau Civil Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan, from August 2022 to January 2023. METHODOLOGY: Women with singleton pregnancy having cephalic presentation, previous one lower segment caesarean section (LSCS), and without any contraindication for vaginal delivery were included. Women bearing foetus having estimated weight >3.5kg, morbid obesity, multiple pregnancies, non-cephalic presentation, placenta praevia, abruptio placentae, uncontrolled maternal comorbidities, or had previous two or more Caesarean sections were excluded. Flamm and Geiger score was applied to record observations of successful and unsuccessful trials. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the score were calculated by ROC curve, along with its area under the curve (AUC) and Youden's index curve, with 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: This study included 258 participants. Successful vaginal delivery was possible in 125 (48.4%) participants, whereas 133 (51.6%) underwent emergency Caesarean section. Cervical dilatation and effacement were the main factors assessing the success. The Flamm and Geiger score of >5 had an area under the curve of 0.813 (0.762-0.864). The score's sensitivity was 75% (67-82%), specificity 76% (68-82%), and PPV of 75% with an accuracy of 76%. CONCLUSION: The Flamm and Geiger score of >5 demonstrated high sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and accuracy in predicting later successful vaginal birth. It is recommended as a promising and valuable tool for assessing VBAC's success in low-resource countries. KEY WORDS: Vaginal birth after caesarean, Flamm and Geiger Model, Indication of caesarean, trial of labour after caesarean, VBAC risk scoring criteria.

Acute Graft versus Host Disease in Beta Thalassemia Patients Following Allogeneic Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the frequency, risk factors, and clinical symptoms of acute graft-versus-host disease (aGvHD) in patients with beta-thalassemia major after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). STUDY DESIGN: Descriptive study. Place and Duration of the Study: Department of Clinical Haematology, Armed Forces Bone Marrow Transplant Centre, Rawalpindi, Pakistan, from January 2017 to December 2021. METHODOLOGY: Data were obtained from patients diagnosed with bone and tissue malignancies (BTM) who had undergone haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) and experienced aGVHD. Patients who experienced initial graft failure and individuals who underwent subsequent bone marrow transplantation were excluded. RESULTS: Total of 117 patients diagnosed with BTM underwent fully matched HSCT, including 76 (65%) males, and 41 (35%) females. The median age of the patients undergoing transplantation was 7.34±7.32 years and the donors' median age was 7.6±9.85 years. Among the donors, 53 (45.3%) were males and 64 (54.7%) were females. Gender disparity was observed in 46 (39.3%) instances as a female donor matched with a male recipient. A total of 106 individuals underwent bone marrow harvest (BMH); with 5 (4.3%) patients receiving peripheral blood stem cells (PBSC) and 6 (5.2%) patients receiving both BMH and PBSC. Acute GvHD was observed in 50 (42.7%) patients, including 30 (60%) males and 20 (40%) females. Grade I GvHD occurred in 32 (27.3%) individuals, Grade II GvHD in 16 (13.7%) patients, and Grade III GvHD in one (0.8%) patient. It had no statistically significant association with recipient/donor age, gender disparity, the source of the graft source, the dose of stem cells, or the presence of thymoglobulin (TG). CONCLUSION: Acute GvHD was observed in high frequency in Beta-thalassemia patients receiving morrow harvesting proportional to their gender distribution. Associated factors were GvHD prophylaxis measure, mucositis and, CMV reactivation. KEY WORDS: Beta thalassemia major patients, Acute graft versus host disease, Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell.